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S&P 500 Components Liquidity Chart

S&P 500 Sector Liquidity Chart

iShares Core MSCI International Developed Mkt ETF Liquidity Chart

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Liquidity Chart

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund Liquidity Chart

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund Liquidity Chart

The datasets from which these PYPL forecasts are drawn originate from FactSet. They represent the aggregated estimates made available to academics or practitioners via the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES). Although this seems like a fair way of predicting future profits given that they have some level expertise in investment banking, studies show there's still an optimism bias present among these professionals.

Regression-based models suffer from the use of past earnings in a linear or exponential framework. This can lead to bias because these models assume that future performance will mirror historical trends exactly, whereas business cycle dynamics and seasonality may introduce randomness over time periods.

While there is a clear consensus that a factor-based approach to investment is rewarded over time, it goes without saying that the implementation of factor investing strategies, especially in the world of long-only money-management, is rarely subject to the same consensus. Index providers who offer funds that generally contain a small number of stocks in relation to the size and risk level they are designed for, often do so by selecting certain conditions or factors within each company.

For example, some commercial indexes aim at proportionality between price movements and dividends paid out over time while others look exclusively on liquidity considerations alone; yet still more restrict their selection criteria based around corporate governance issues like transparency reports rating various aspects such as soundness levels among others relevant metrics available about any given firm when deciding whether it should be included into an investor’s portfolio.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund Liquidity Chart

Components

Historical price and liquidity data

Seasonality

This multi-factor forecast for Paypal Holdings (PYPL) is based on a weighted average of five factor-dervied forecasts.

Backtest PYPL

Left-hand side y-axis orders liquidity rank of individuals chart components.
Right-hand side y-axis coordinates measure the price of XLY.

Component Liquidity

Component	Last Value
AMZN	92.00000
TSLA	82.00000
MCD	78.00000
HD	78.00000
LOW	74.00000
NKE	68.00000
SBUX	66.00000
TJX	66.00000
TGT	64.00000
BKNG	64.00000
DG	62.00000
GM	58.00000
ORLY	54.00000
F	48.00000
AZO	46.00000
CMG	44.00000
MAR	42.00000
HLT	40.00000
YUM	40.00000
ROST	28.00000
DLTR	16.00000
APTV	12.00000
TSCO	6.00000
DHI	4.00000
GPC	2.00000

Component	1 Month Ago	1 Week Ago	Last Value
AMZN	92.00000	100.00000	98.00000
TSLA	82.00000	98.00000	96.00000
MCD	78.00000	98.00000	94.00000
HD	78.00000	96.00000	92.00000
LOW	74.00000	90.00000	88.00000
NKE	68.00000	82.00000	88.00000
SBUX	66.00000	70.00000	86.00000
TJX	66.00000	68.00000	84.00000
TGT	64.00000	60.00000	84.00000
BKNG	64.00000	60.00000	84.00000
DG	62.00000	56.00000	82.00000
GM	58.00000	42.00000	72.00000
ORLY	54.00000	38.00000	70.00000
F	48.00000	34.00000	70.00000
AZO	46.00000	32.00000	54.00000
CMG	44.00000	30.00000	54.00000
MAR	42.00000	26.00000	50.00000
HLT	40.00000	26.00000	50.00000
YUM	40.00000	24.00000	42.00000
ROST	28.00000	24.00000	32.00000
DLTR	16.00000	20.00000	24.00000
APTV	12.00000	16.00000	24.00000
TSCO	6.00000	14.00000	20.00000
DHI	4.00000	10.00000	12.00000
GPC	2.00000	8.00000	4.00000

All Liquidity Visualizations

About Transactional Liquidity

To paraphrase trader Larry Harris, transactional liquidity in the markets is the ability to trade large order sizes quickly, at low cost and time that is convenient to the trader. Many traders consider liquidity the most important characteristic of well-functioning markets.

As a general observation, low liquidity is accompanied by high volatility in price movements, and vice-versa.

Note that traders who need to perform a more comprehensive analysis can backtest the impact of liquidity on a particular security using the Tradewell platform.

How Liquidity is Calculated

This measure of liquidity displayed on the heat-maps is adapted from Amihud’s illiquidity measure, which is the ratio of absolute close to-close returns to dollar volume (Price * Volume).

This metric is calculated as a the current value ranked over the prior 50 days. A low value indicates high liquidity, while a high value indicates lower liquidity (at the transactional level). In other words, a value that is high implies a large absolute close to close return, but relatively low volume comparatively.
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We measure liquidity for each component of a particular index or ETF’s in order to help understand liquidity dynamics underneath the surface.

About Liquidity Heat Map Colors

This liquidity heat map uses a color scale to display the internal liquidity dynamics of Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. The Y-axis is composed of each individual Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund component, which is sorted each and every day by their liquidity rank on that day compared to the other components. This allows us to see visually whether component liquidity was high, normal, or poor. For example, if the liquidity heatmap shows more red, and darker red on a given day, it is more likely that the majority of components are highly illiquid, and vice-versa.

About Liquidity Heat Map Coordinates

The X-axis displays trading days by date, while the Y-axis contains the liquidity rank of each individual security component comprising Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund.

About Liquidity Heat Map Coordinates

A price chart of Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund is overlaid on top of the heat map so you can observe the impact that different liquidity regimes may be having on the price of the asset.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLY is an exchange traded fund whose portfolio is comprised of US consumer-discretionary stocks. This investment seeks to provide the same performance as stocks in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. The index includes securities of companies from the following industries: retail, hotels, restaurants and leisure; textiles, apparel and luxury goods; household durables; automobiles.

All Liquidity Visualizations

Liquidity

This chart shows the liquidity of individual components of XLY over the last year.

Components

Historical price and seasonality data

AAPL

Guest Commentary

Robson Chow is a hedge fund manager

Thank you for reading... and hope you are enjoying the holidays. The full post can be found here https://t.co/uLKVnqB5ZS
— QuartersPower (@HalfersPower) December 30, 2021

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